Fig. 3

Analysis of an ODE-based model of the cell cycle. a Graphical representation of the cell cycle model of Tyson [27]. b Posterior distribution of the two observables; phosphorylated Cdc2 and the total amount of cyclin, and of two unobserved species, phosphorylated and unphosphorylated cyclin. The black crosses represent the generated data which are used for the inference. The shaded blue area represents the posterior 95 % confidence interval of the mean of the observables. c The prior and posterior probability distributions of each of the 16 parameters. The blue lines indicate the prior, the red lines the estimated posterior, and the dashed grey lines indicate the values that were used to generate the data. The densities are estimated from the posterior samples using kernel density estimation with Sheather-Jones bandwidth selection